Based on relative price strength, Metal Tiger is in the top 10 of undervalued stocks according to Jim O’Shaughnessy’s Tiny Titans league table (see here).
This is the ratio between the price trend and the share price.
Is this one of the measures Mike Joseph uses who issued this tweet this morning?
Mike had 6.31% of the shares. He now has 8.13%.
We also have Simon Thompson of Investors Chronicle who has Metal Tiger as a bargain share for 2020 (see here). He reiterated this in a follow up article on the 15th May.
When you look at the sum of the parts we have many indicators that Metal Tiger is undervalued (see here).
Since this article published MTR have invested an additional A$310k in Cobre who have acquired 100% of Toucan.
All of the indicators are Metal Tiger is undervalued. The good news is this undervaluation takes no account of the potential upside from their numerous investments let alone the 2% net smelter royalties negotiated with Kalahari Metals or Sandfire Resources.
These investments are numerous as can be seen from the above graphic.
When a value is established regarding the negotiated net smelter royalties what will be the value of the business?
Exciting times for Metal Tiger when with the buzz around junior gold companies, MTR have investments in at least 9 such companies.
All the indicators are the future is looking very positive for Metal Tiger.
Let’s see if this translates to the share price.With companies shares in free float continually diminishing as long term holders buy the rerate should it happen will be swift.
Metal Tiger share price is currently c25p. This valuation does not cover the assets of the business let alone the upside associated with its investments.
All analysis of the business indicates that MTR is undervalued.
Every single market indicator indicates Metal Tiger is a strong buy as indicated by the following indicators. Anybody who uses indicators as a buy signal would consider MTR a slam dunk.
Simon Thompson of Investors Chronicle
Simon Thompson of Investors Chronicle has Metal Tiger as one of his top shares to watch in 2020. (See here). The reasons highlighted are compelling.
Why has billionaire Rick Rule one of the most influential people in the mining industry, personally bought 3.94% of Metal Tiger?
Rick Rule is also a partner of Exploration Capital Partners who own 13.56% of Metal Tiger.
These are significant investments. Rick Rule is on record as saying he invests looking for multi bag opportunities.
Much of this investment was made at 30p (takes into account consolidation). Much higher than the current share price. What does that say about what Rick Rule expects to happen to the share price if he bought at 30p and expects to multi bag from that level?
Share Price movement
The share price is continuing to climb. Many are seeing the potential. So much news is coming from this asset rich, cash rich business.
Share price has moved from 8p (equivalent) 19th March 2020to 26p, 9th July 2020 an increase of 225%.
The Metal Tiger share price was many years ago at much higher levels than it is now. At that time MTR’s asset base was significantly less than the current position.
Logic would therefore dictate that the share price should be much higher.
Question I keep asking myself is why has billionaire Rick Rule one of the most influential people in the mining industry, personally bought 3.94% of Metal Tiger?
Many of these bought at the 3p level, a price some 50% above the current price.
We know Rick knew and respected Terry Grammar, a person who helped build the foundations of Metal Tiger with Michael McNeilly (CEO) and Charles Hall (Chairman).
Terry during his lifetime had a history of discoveries. What did Terry, Michael and Charles say to Rick that resulted him personally acquiring 3.94% of the business? Paying more than the current share price for his shares.
One thing for sure is Rick will have carried out his due diligence before investing.
I was always told follow the money and the experts.
So why has the share price dropped to the current levels when it was trading at over 6p?
AIM market is full of people making a good living off the back of others. It goes on, has it with Metal Tiger? Who knows.
Are the rumours true that a company was being shorted and the company was running out of funds. Those shorting waited for a placing so they could take part to cover their short position. Metal Tiger however provided the funds negating the requirement for a placing. Those with short positions then had no option but to buy shares on market resulting in share price going up.
Those involved allegedly held a grudge against Metal Tiger and did what they could to keep the share price low.
Is this fact or fiction? Only those involved really know.
Audacious Bid for Metal Tiger
Ex Director of Metal Tiger tried to acquire the business at a knockdown price.
As the BOD should work for their shareholders not themselves. This knocked confidence in what investors thought about MTR.
This drama was soon addressed.
Kingsgate aggressive takeover
Metal Tiger made a failed attempt to gain control of Kingsgate who had a mine shut in Thailand. MTR with offices and connections in Thailand believed they could get the mine in operation again.
Unfortunately some of those who said they would back Metal Tiger on the day of the EGM didn’t back MTR and the bid failed.
This again knocked Investors faith in Metal Tiger.
MTR’s investment in Metal Tiger has been very profitable. However for several years this was a drain on the companies management time and funds. Little progress was made for a years whilst MOD steadily ran out of funds.
The above is all in the past. These hiccups are behind us and we now have a robust business with funds and an enviable portfolio of investments.
So why is Metal Tiger share price still at the c2p level?
Metal Tiger have been steadily acquiring future royalty streams. The minimum value of these royalties is more than the current mcap. For this reason alone the share price of Metal Tiger is wrong.
Investors are getting the upside to all other investments for nothing, for example Greatland Gold shares are worth £900k+ and you also have the value of the warrants.
Looking at trading patterns it is clear the share price is on an upward trajectory. Today the shares during the morning were oversold before bouncing back into the blue in the afternoon.
We then have the share consolidations. Look what has happened the last three times the share price has had a downward dip. The share price has gone to levels above the previous drop.
You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to know where the share price is going in the next few days.
Metal Tiger has come of age and is about to deliver for shareholders.
The ARA is well worth a read if you want to know about investments that have happened this year and the value of the business at the end of 2019 (see here).
So much news is due in the coming weeks it is inconceivable the share price will remain at these levels.
Simon Thompson of Investors Chronicle has Metal Tiger as one of his top shares to watch in 2020. (See here).
I wonder why Investors Chronicle have MTR as a share to watch?
Why has Rick Rule, Mike Joseph and many long term holders who have done their due diligence accumulating MTR shares?
When the share price drops it is as Warren Buffet says the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.
Hopefully my patience will be rewarded as will the beneficiaries of Terry Grammar’s trust.
Arkle Resources are a small MCAP business with gold and zinc interests in Ireland (see here).
The share price has increased significantly over the last few weeks despite a placing and the issuing of options. The trading volumes have been exceptionally high.
Placing was not offered to public and oversubscribed. What do those who took part know that we don’t?
Placing was completed in a couple of hours, therefore no time for due diligence.
On same day after placing announced some big buys at higher price than the placing price. Was this some buying who couldn’t get the allocation of the placing they wanted?
So why the sudden interest in Arkle Resources, what’s going on?
1. Options issued now for a reason. BOD ensuring they benefit from impending uplift? Why would you announce options directly after a placing? 2. Several interested parties in Stonepark asset. Listen to the interview with Arkle (here). 3. Business can’t say more as 1 or more NDA’s in place? 4. Group Eleven have stated they will recommence operations at Stonepark in August. Puts a timeframe on any negotiations as you would want to conclude before more positive data available. 5. Secured funding shows Arkle will not take a lowball offer as have access to funds to continue alone. 6. Huge volume last few days – share has traction 7. Expecting a TR1 because of the volumes – will it be Glencore? 8. Look at the gold assets – market hasn’t focused on these yet. Have funding. How much more funding will Arkle have to maximise asset value if/when Stonepark deal materialises?
Arkle share price moving up is no surprise. In the interview clearly wanted to say more but couldn’t as information not in the public domain.
What was point of interview? In my opinion to make it clear to interested parties they have competition. Only way of doing that, if NDA’s in place, say nothing but make it clear want to say more.
Glencore have invested in Group Eleven who own the lions share of StonePark. The prospect has higher zinc levels, at a shallower depth than Glencore’s adjacent licence area.
It is not surprising that Glencore have shown an interest.
Arkle are not a distressed seller. Arkle hold the ace cards and are currently a thorn in Glencore side as any upside from Glencore investment in StonePark, Arkle get as a free ride.
It would make business sense for Glencore to secure all upside for themselves.
We now have a First Equity issuing a buy recommendation pointing out the following:
1. Highly advantageous JV terms Arkle has in joint venture 2. Arkle has rights to sell percentage of any metal produced. This is an asset that can be sold on. 3. Zinc at shallower depth than Glencore area. 4. Significance of Glencore investment in Group Eleven.
You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to realise when you read the recommendation that belief is Glencore interest/action isn’t finished yet.
What will happen in the next few weeks?
Glencore make an offer for Arkle zinc interests?
Another bidder materialises?
This share is poised for some serious upward share price movement.
It is becoming clear that royalty streams have become a significant part of Metal Tigers growth strategy.
Today we have the RNS regarding Metal Tigers participation in Trident Resources £16m placing (see here).
Metal Tiger will own 2.75% of the business with their 2.85m shares. A business that is focused on growth-focused mining royalty and streaming.
Metal Tigers new website also has a page specifically highlighting their future royalty streams. This was not the case with the old website.
It is clearly a focus for the business. The added benefit is these royalty payments can, if MTR wish be sold on.
It’s interesting that MtR have invested in a company focused on royalty payments. Could they be preparing for the future?
They could sell on royalty interests to Trident and still retain some of the upside via their 2.75% share holding.
Metal Tiger have some significant assets and their asset base continues to grow.
The CEO of Metal Tiger also mentioned during a recent interview that royalty interests have a value and the possibility of selling on. The market will at some point include the value of royalty payments into their assessment of MTR’s value.
This is a rich news period for Metal Tiger. Now expecting news regarding Pan Asia Metals IPO in the next few weeks.
Smaller market cap gold companies are in demand (see here). Several companies have seen significant gains in the share price such as AIM listed company Greatland Gold (GGP).
Investors are experiencing some reasonable gains investing in gold stocks.
Is this because:
Investors transferring their investments from automobile, aviation, leisure stocks etc that have been hit hard by the impact of Covid19?
Gold price increased to c$1700 and some predicting will reach $3000+
Governments printing money, leading to its value decreasing and gold being seen as a safe haven.
What small cap gold companies should investors consider investing? This article (see here) provides information on some possibilities.
If you wished to make the returns gained by GGP holders? You could argue that investing in GGP now is too late as the early investors have already made the significant gains. If you invested now and the share price reached 18p you would double your money. Would investors stand a better chance making GGP past returns investing in another small mcap business that hasn’t yet started to show significant returns?
For example Arkle resources shares went up 104% on Friday.
What small MCAP gold explorers have I invest in?
I did research and used others research and then invested in:
Cobra Resources (COBR) – (for reasons why see here)
Metal Tiger are an investment company who focus on undervalued natural resource opportunities. They provide support to companies to maximise the value of their natural resource interests.
Currently Metal Tiger are invested in at least 9 gold exploration businesses.
For one investment I have exposure to several gold opportunities as well as Metal Tigers significant copper prospects etc. The business has significant funding and shareholders are therefore unlikely to see their investment diluted.
The investments in Southern Gold, Greatland Gold, Arkle, Los Cerros and Aurelius have been taken for the following reasons:
MTR have invested in these companies having carried out due diligence. It’s their job to identify undervalued companies, provide investment and increase value. Why as a private investor would I be able to identify better investments?
Terry Grammer renowned geologist has been involved in the investment decisions. He has a proven track record.
MTR made significant returns on their investment in MOD Resources when it was acquired by Sandfire Resources. Shareholders have to date received no benefit, as the share price hasn’t yet reflected the increase in Metal Tigers asset base. The strategy in taking a stake in some of their investments safeguards against this happening again.
Whatever gold investments you choose to make, good luck I hope they are profitable.
RNS released today (see here) did not provide the awaited results information.
Strange that RNS provides no tangible news and situation today is the same as yesterday yet significant downwards market movement.
The share price during initial trading dropped significantly. In my opinion short term traders getting out and moving on to the next El Dorado.
Investing if you want to make significant returns is about looking to the future and spotting the opportunity. Get in early and hold.
The RNS had one piece of significant news that seems to have been overlooked by the market. A new ICOG target identified. The newly named Grace prospect.
‘The newly named Grace prospect, east of Clarke prospect has returned highly anomalous Molybdenum assays, typically associated with Iron-Oxide-Copper-Gold (IOCG) mineralisation.’
The game changer for Cobra Resources will be if they make an ICOG (iron, oxide, copper, gold) discovery. These are typically world class deposits.
Cobra have 4/5 potential ICOG sites. These sites have similar geochemical signatures as BHP’s Olympic Dam Project.
The BHP Olympic Dam project also located in South Australia is the fourth largest gold mine in the world.
The Olympic Dam gold resource statistics are impressive.
The Australian Government as part of its Accelerated Discovery Initiative is looking to co-fund Cobra’s ICOG exploration activities in South Australia.
The fund asked Cobra to provide more information as part of the next stage with regard to their funding application. The ADI wouldn’t ask for this information unless Cobra were in a good position to secure funding.
For details about the South Australian accelerated mining programme, see here.
For a small market cap business the impact of an ICOG mine could be transformational.
Some questions indicate to me this is a minor blip in the share prices trajectory.
Why have Cobra recently issued an RNS regarding a block listing of warrants? You wouldn’t do this if you expect the share price to remain at these levels as the warrants wouldn’t be exercised.
Results RNS still awaited. Why have investors who jumped onboard waiting for this information jumped ship?
Why have some investors been buying £100k+ of shares at above the placing price? I would not be surprised if later today we find more large trades have taken place.
Share price is currently below the placing price. Placing was oversubscribed. This indicates that those who participated in the placing believe this share price is a steal.
Are some churning shares to pay for their placing shares?
Latest RNS indicated that potentially Barns and Baggy Green resources would increase based on increased knowledge.
Only negative in the RNS was in some areas, 3m of sand prevented the technology being used from establishing if gold below. Would you if this was the case, now implement a different technology?
The share price is still on its path to deliver for long term holders.
I am not selling, as since this mornings RNS the reason to buy has become more compelling.
Whilst Alliance have limited data the information indicates that a shallow pit gold mine would be economical. Obviously as the price of Gold increases, as inflation bites and the impact of a recession hits the gold mine economics will become more compelling.
Cobra’s awaited data information analysis is more extensive than Alliance Resources data.
It would be a reasonable assumption to make, Cobra information when released to the market will be a validation of Alliances earlier results.
Alliance are RC drilling now, so further information can be expected with regard to progress in the near future.
The impact could be significant on both the Cobra and Alliance Resource share prices.
The Alliance information released on the 8th May indicates the area has the potential to be a good hot spot.
All the indicators are Cobra Resources Share Price has a strong possibility of rising next week read here.
Cobra Resource is a copper and gold exploration company focused on South Australia.
The share price has increased significantly in the last two months, rising between the 1st April and 6th May by 293%.
We then had an RNS announcement on Thursday about a placing before the share price had a drop of 16.9%. Not surprising as shares in issue increased by 19% and placing at a discount of 23.7%.
Despite the placing is the share price poised for a significant upward surge again?
What’s interesting is:
Book build only open for a day. Why the rush?
Placing not open to the public. Company knew they would have no issue placing.
1hr 40mins after placing announcement the book was closed. Investors therefore had no time to do any due diligence.
The Wudinna gold Project update (soil sampling data) is expected imminently. Was the rush with the placing to save embarrassment for the BOD? A 23.7% placing discount is embarrassing enough, but what if data is good news and share price goes on another surge, what discount would the BOD have had to announce?
Alliance Resources have land adjacent to Cobre Gold licences and on the 8th May released positive news (see here).
Has news about soil sampling already leaked to the market? It was noticeable on the 5th May that 44.37m shares traded in the company, 29% of the shares in issue. Why?
Craig Moulton (Managing Director) statement in the latest RNS release stated:
“It was pleasing to see this raise oversubscribed demonstrating the growing support for the Company in the UK capital markets. We look forward to updating the market in the coming weeks on the results of the Stage 2 exploration programme at Wudinna”
No doubt in my mind that Craig is ‘looking forward’ to updating us as he knows the news is positive, as probably do all those who took part in the placing.
Some will have not received their full allocation in the placing.
I like many was disappointed with the placing announcement at such a discount.
Having thought about it logically and looked at what’s happened and is about happen, we are I believe going to get a significant uplift in the share price in the coming weeks. The pointers indicate some in the know will be consolidating their positions next week.
As a private investor I look for clues as well as fundamentals when making my investment decisions. With this share I’m happy to have picked up some crumbs from the top table. I wait to see if reading between the lines pays dividends for my investment portfolio or if I’m barking up the wrong tree.
For information on Alliance Resources announcement and why important to Cobra read here. This blog indicates prospects adjacent to each other and gold at shallow level.
What’s the value of the share price for every 1m ounces extracted? This infographic gives an indication of potential returns.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Monday is a good day for shareholders.